{"id":1223,"date":"2013-09-07T11:01:00","date_gmt":"2013-09-07T15:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lemasney.com\/consulting\/?p=1223"},"modified":"2025-11-14T22:37:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-15T03:37:09","slug":"on-informed-choices-and-the-invisible-hand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lemasney.com\/consulting\/2013\/09\/07\/on-informed-choices-and-the-invisible-hand\/","title":{"rendered":"On informed choices and the invisible hand."},"content":{"rendered":"
\"The<\/a>

The eight trigrams (Photo credit: Wikipedia)<\/p><\/div>\n

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I had an interesting discussion today on choice and fate.<\/h2>\n

A friend asked me if I thought my book was already written and I was living it out, or if I felt like I had a say in what happened. I think that we are entirely choice based beings, and that the decisions that we make lead to the outcomes we enjoy or despise. We often don’t predict the outcome effectively, and are surprised by the result, unless we have experienced success or failure in that situation before. We might not even learn from our previous experiences, but as we experience more, we can at least expect a certain outcome.<\/p>\n

How do you read a book, listen to music, or choose movies?<\/h2>\n
\"English:<\/a>

English: Photograph of Roku XDS player with remote. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)<\/p><\/div>\n

For instance, when you open Netflix, and look at the recommended movies, called “Top Ten for John”, the suggestor is an algorithm based on your previous choices. Because of the many people in the system who have made choices either more similar or more different than yours, the system can more effectively predict what it is that you will enjoy. Recently, on my Roku instance of Netflix a new line started showing up with random picks. I sometimes stumble upon something interesting there, and am happy for the option, but I am far more likely to find something interesting in my “top 10 for John” list.<\/p>\n

Do you believe in an invisible hand of fate?<\/h2>\n

There is a theory in decision-making called the invisible hand, the idea that people can be categorized in two ways: Those who believe that there is an invisible force at work that influences outcomes, and those who feel that they have most of the control in their outcomes. I firmly land in the latter group. There is a certain satisfaction, even in disaster, in knowing that it was my choices that led me there, because it allows me to make other choices to remedy or counteract it.<\/p>\n

Are you lucky? Are you fortunate?<\/h2>\n
\"Good

Good Fortune (Photo credit: lucianvenutian)<\/p><\/div>\n

I have often said that I am fortunate, reluctantly, because I don;t really believe in fortune. Luck, to me, does not exist. I believe rather that you work to set yourself up strategically for the best possible outcome, and when and if it comes, it’s because you were in the best possible situation for that to happen. I have found money on the sidewalk, and someone might say “That’s so lucky!” I would say rather that it was a good decision to get out and take a walk today. The two points of view are very different.<\/p>\n

How does the I Ching work?<\/h2>\n

I once had a long argument with a pseudo-Buddhist about the idea of embracing chaos as a means of decision-making. I asked them how they decided what to eat that day, how they chose to get from one place to another, and how they came to the realization that they wanted to go there. They explained that those decisions were not so much chaotic as influenced by sources like the I Ching (yee-jing), a book of prophecy and fortunes based on randomness from the tossing of coins or pulling of yarrow stalks. I studied the I Ching as a part of my understandings of decision-making, but in the end I found it to be more about screaming into the night and expecting a valid response than any kind of assistant to my questions. This is with all due respect to the idea, which is a beautiful one.<\/p>\n

How do you come to truth?<\/h2>\n
\"Fact_001\"<\/a>

Fact_001 (Photo credit: dgray_xplane)<\/p><\/div>\n

In getting to know someone, I often ask some key philosophical questions, key among them this: How do you come to truth? I want to know where someone finds a way to recognize what’s true. I want to know if it’s because they researched it, because they heard it from a friend, or because they just feel that way. I want to know how they begin to make decisions, how they come to a well-rounded philosophy about life, and how they live. It’s a powerful question. For me the answer lies in nature, in research, in fact, and my experience. I may not have the final truth, but I have a comfortably close facsimile.<\/p>\n

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